A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
